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  • Ben 11:09 on Sunday, August 29, 2010 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , Business Intelligence, ,   

    Old School Data Visualisation (Part 2) 

    A quick follow-up to the previous post on the power of data reduction and presentation… here is another example showing how rounding, ordering and thoughtful presentation can turn an incomprehensible grid of numbers into something most people can grok.

    It is from the same article (Ehrenberg, Feb 1992, The Problem of Numeracy, AdMap), but this time relates to television programme viewership.  The first table presents detailed correlations for responses to the question ‘I really like to watch programme x‘ across a range of programmes and two channels (ITV and BBC).

    Apart from an obvious diagonal line of 1.000 in the table (of course each programmes’ rating correlates perfectly with itself), there isn’t much else you can take out from it.  The next table renders the data a little more readable by introducing rounding to one decimal place, discarding the redundant leading zeros and disposing of the meaningless 1.000 diagonal.

    And with a little more thought to row order, spacing and the key data for presentation (i.e., do we really need channel?), we get to the following:

    Those familiar with television in the UK will now see that people who like to watch one sport programme also like to watch other sports programmes, particularly if they are ’round up’ type shows.  They don’t, however, like news or current events programmes so much.  A similar pattern occurs for current event watchers, but the programmes within that cluster have slightly lower correlations, meaning viewership is less likely to be homogeneous amongst that group.  If you are an advertiser or producer, this is useful stuff to know because it will give you an idea of the reach of, and competition around, a certain programme.  And you are more likely to understand this if the data is presented in a clear and concise way.

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  • Ben 16:30 on Sunday, August 15, 2010 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , Business Intelligence, ,   

    Old School Data Visualisation (Part 1) 

    I was talking to a friend last night about data presentation.  We were looking at an iPad ap that allows users to thumb through and drill-down into their sales data for different geographic regions.  Among other things, the ap displayed charts with smoothed trend-lines to help users get a feel for what the future might hold. Yet, in the relatively brief time I spent looking at the data it was hard to get any real sense of what the key take-outs might be.

    This will have been partly due to my lack of familiarity with the dataset; the person responsible for sales for the organisation would have  brought a wealth of historic knowledge to the data that may have enabled them to quickly see discrepancies or commonalities in the charts.  However, there was also an element of ‘too much’ information.  There is only so much we humans can hold in our short term memory before we become overwhelmed and our ability to do mental calculations or comparisons is compromised.  This is why it is critical for anyone presenting data to consider not only the level of detail required, but also how the information should be delivered for quick and clear consumption.

    Marketing scientist Andrew Ehrenberg spent a fair amount of time on these issues and was a strong advocate of data reduction (which relates to the idea that much success in research relies on the discovery of patterns in data, and that this process is aided by its presentation in simple tables).  In fact, Ehrenberg wrote a book on the subject that is freely downloadable from the EmpGens Journal.

    Here is an example of Ehrenberg’s approach.  I’ve reproduced the tables from a four page article of his in Admap from 1992 titled ‘The Problem of Numeracy‘.  First up is a table not optimised for human consumption.  Try to pick out some noteworthy patterns.

    Now try again, using a modified presentation of the same data:

    The rounding, averages and different row ordering (population size, rather than alphabet) all make it easier to quickly understand the data.  We can now see, for instance, that most regions saw a dip in Q3, that Leeds and Edinburgh have seen strong growth in Q4, and that Leeds is consistently punching above its weight in per capita sales.  We can also easily answer comparative questions like ‘how much larger was Edinburgh than Swansea over the year‘ (about 2.5x), which were much harder to do from the first table.

    People don’t often think of treating tables like other design elements in a user interface.  Yet as the example shows, they can fairly easily be tweaked to great effect.  And, when presented clearly, a table can convey more information in a short space of time than a series of charts.

     
  • Ben 9:46 on Saturday, October 31, 2009 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , Business Intelligence, Evidence-Based Policy, Fraud Detection, , GPS, Mobile   

    Link Post: Google GPS, Fraud Detection and PolitiScience 

    A number of interesting links came through the Twitterverse this morning, so I’m putting them here to share/remember.

    Enjoy!

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  • Ben 20:40 on Sunday, October 18, 2009 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , Business Intelligence, , Five Star Rating, ,   

    The Five-Point Rating House of Cards 

    The web is awash with 5-point rating schemes.  Netflix, Amazon, YouTube, WordPress (via PollDaddy ratings), Apple’s Ap Store, the Android Market and countless blogs use them to gauge people’s experience with various items.  It’s not hard to see why 5-point schemes are so popular;  they are really simple to implement, familiar to most people, and can be made to look all kinds of pretty using icons for stars, hearts or smileys.

    Unfortunately, they often don’t gather very useful data.  And that’s a big problem for sites that intend to use ratings as the backbone of their recommendation systems.

    The 5-point schemes common on the web suffer from two core problems: nonresponse and measurement bias.  First, many people choose not to rate many items, and those that do tend to have had a positive experience.  Data from YouTube supports this, as does that from Netflix.  Second, the scales are usually not labelled, meaning people answer under a wide variety of interpretations as to what each ‘point’ means.  This comment from a YouTube user suggests ambiguity in the scale can also exacerbate the nonresponse issue…

    Ratings on YouTube have always been somewhat confusing for me: should I rate the content of the video or the quality? There are some wonderfully shot videos on YouTube that really don’t have any meaningful content, and there are also a lot of videos that have wonderful content but are shot very poorly. I think a dual content vs. quality rating would add too much complexity to the system, but I often don’t rate a video for that very reason.
    I don’t find ratings all that helpful, probably due to the fact that there are millions of people using YouTube, each with a different opinion. It doesn’t influence whether I watch a video, but then again, I usually find videos from friends or other channels I respect.

    Ratings on YouTube have always been somewhat confusing for me: should I rate the content of the video or the quality? There are some wonderfully shot videos on YouTube that really don’t have any meaningful content, and there are also a lot of videos that have wonderful content but are shot very poorly. I think a dual content vs. quality rating would add too much complexity to the system, but I often don’t rate a video for that very reason.

    I don’t find ratings all that helpful, probably due to the fact that there are millions of people using YouTube, each with a different opinion. It doesn’t influence whether I watch a video, but then again, I usually find videos from friends or other channels I respect. [comment found here]

    Probably the best way to get around these problems is to measure a person’s preferences indirectly by recording their behaviour: how much of the video did they watch?  did they share the content? did they look for related items?  It is fairly well established that what people say and what they do can be very different things, so users’ actions may be much more useful than their words.  Certainly, the ‘popular’ and ‘most viewed’ categories in YouTube appear to rely on behavioural metrics, so perhaps their rating metric is redundant.

    However, the ‘measure behaviour’ solution is best suited to organisations that deliver interactive material consumed on-site (YouTube, StumbleUpon).   So, what can you do if you are dealing with items that aren’t consumed on-site? Collapsing the scale to “liked it”/”didn’t like it” won’t solve the core issues – if anything it will just mean you give up what little discriminative power the 5-point scale might have had.  Another suggestion is to expand the scale to 10 points. While this may increase the discriminative power of the scale and is a format people are familiar with, it won’t solve the ambiguity problem.  For that you need to construct clear labels that are likely to be interpreted in much the same way by most people.  Ideally, the scale will also relate as directly as possible to whatever it is you want to use the data for. This is much easier said than done, but here is an example that might work for a site recommending local restaurants:

    0 – I will definitely not (0%) eat there again soon

    1 – It is unlikely (20% chance) I will eat there again soon

    2 – There is some chance (40%) I will eat there again soon

    3 – There is a good chance (60%) I will eat there again soon

    4 – It is quite likely (80%) I will eat there again soon

    5 – I will definitely (100%) eat there again soon

    This is actually a heavily butchered version of a probability-based predictive instrument called the Juster Scale.  It would have to be tested, but it at least serves to demonstrate the qualities I outlined above.  The scale could also easily be extended to more points (in fact, the Juster Scale is an 11-point scale).

    Finally, there is the issue of nonresponse.  A good scale will help resolve this, but ultimately you need to follow-up users to increase rating participation.  TradeMe and TravelBug are two local examples that do this well.  You’ll never get every user giving a rating for the products they’ve tried, but at least you’ll bump the proportion up, which will provide a more solid foundation for any recommendation or imputation algorithms you want to run over the data.

    So, if you are at the early stages of developing a rating function for your site, give some careful thought to how your scheme will work.  Test it out before you commit to it longer term.  Doing so will give you much better data to work with down the track.

    One final point: you can probably forget all this if your core reason for implementing ratings is to generate reassuring sales cues to prospective buyers (i.e., in the same way sites put testimonials up to reassure users).  In that case, you are likely to be better off with an unlabeled 5-point scale.  As the folks at YouTube found, most of the ratings you will get with such a scale will be positive!

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  • Ben 14:23 on Sunday, October 4, 2009 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , Business Intelligence, , , ,   

    Music to a Data Geek’s Ears 

    “If you are looking for a career where your services will be in high demand, you should find something where you provide a scarce, complementary service to something that is getting ubiquitous and cheap. So what’s getting ubiquitous and cheap? Data. And what is complementary to data? Analysis. So my recommendation is to take lots of courses about how to manipulate and analyze data: databases, machine learning, econometrics, statistics, visualization, and so on.”  Hal Varian, Chief Economist at Google

    Me suffer from confirmation bias? Never!
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  • Ben 15:50 on Sunday, September 20, 2009 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , Business Intelligence, , ,   

    A Nifty Trick for Transforming Categorical Data 

    Categorical variables with lots of options (e.g., country of origin, occupation, postcodes) can be problematic when regression modelling; they have to be dummy coded and use many degrees of freedom, increasing the potential for model overfitting.  The typical approaches to dealing with this are to:

    • Discard the variable if it doesn’t appear it will be a good discriminator. It is sometimes hard to tell this up front when you have loads of categories.
    • Roll the categories up into larger sets based on conceptual similarity.  This can work for ordinal or geographic data, but is more difficult for purely nominal variables.  There is also the risk that you’ll ‘average away’ some of the predictive value in the variable.
    • Use a statistical technique (e.g., a decision tree) to work out groupings of categories based on their discriminative power.  This may make for groupings that are hard to explain.

    Another option I’ve recently come across is to convert the categorical variable to a metric-level variable using historic response data.  For instance, say you’ve been collecting your customer’s postcodes for a while and are looking to employ this variable in a predictive model.  Perhaps you are predicting response to a mailing offer (or something similar) which has been running for at least one learning cycle.  A potential way to deal with the ‘too many categories’ problem would be to calculate the proportion of people contacted in each postcode during prior mailings who responded to the offer.  Voilà!  You’ve now got a metric level and continuous variable to play with.  You can apply the historic response values to any new prospects you are looking to score by matching on the postcode.

    There are at least a couple of caveats to consider when attempting this.  One is that the proportion will be less robust when you have very few people in a specific category historically (e.g., rural postcodes).  In these cases you might have to do some category roll-ups first.  Another potential issue is that it assumes historic contacts were made at random, or according to some mechanism that will also be applied in future selection processes, such that you can consider the prior contacts ‘representative’ of category membership for the purposes of your modelling.  Violations of the assumption would probably require some statistical adjustment to get around.

    If anyone sees other potential issues with this approach, or has other alternatives they use to deal with problematic categorical variables, feel free to comment!

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