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  • Ben 11:09 on Sunday, August 29, 2010 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , , ,   

    Old School Data Visualisation (Part 2) 

    A quick follow-up to the previous post on the power of data reduction and presentation… here is another example showing how rounding, ordering and thoughtful presentation can turn an incomprehensible grid of numbers into something most people can grok.

    It is from the same article (Ehrenberg, Feb 1992, The Problem of Numeracy, AdMap), but this time relates to television programme viewership.  The first table presents detailed correlations for responses to the question ‘I really like to watch programme x‘ across a range of programmes and two channels (ITV and BBC).

    Apart from an obvious diagonal line of 1.000 in the table (of course each programmes’ rating correlates perfectly with itself), there isn’t much else you can take out from it.  The next table renders the data a little more readable by introducing rounding to one decimal place, discarding the redundant leading zeros and disposing of the meaningless 1.000 diagonal.

    And with a little more thought to row order, spacing and the key data for presentation (i.e., do we really need channel?), we get to the following:

    Those familiar with television in the UK will now see that people who like to watch one sport programme also like to watch other sports programmes, particularly if they are ’round up’ type shows.  They don’t, however, like news or current events programmes so much.  A similar pattern occurs for current event watchers, but the programmes within that cluster have slightly lower correlations, meaning viewership is less likely to be homogeneous amongst that group.  If you are an advertiser or producer, this is useful stuff to know because it will give you an idea of the reach of, and competition around, a certain programme.  And you are more likely to understand this if the data is presented in a clear and concise way.

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  • Ben 16:30 on Sunday, August 15, 2010 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , , ,   

    Old School Data Visualisation (Part 1) 

    I was talking to a friend last night about data presentation.  We were looking at an iPad ap that allows users to thumb through and drill-down into their sales data for different geographic regions.  Among other things, the ap displayed charts with smoothed trend-lines to help users get a feel for what the future might hold. Yet, in the relatively brief time I spent looking at the data it was hard to get any real sense of what the key take-outs might be.

    This will have been partly due to my lack of familiarity with the dataset; the person responsible for sales for the organisation would have  brought a wealth of historic knowledge to the data that may have enabled them to quickly see discrepancies or commonalities in the charts.  However, there was also an element of ‘too much’ information.  There is only so much we humans can hold in our short term memory before we become overwhelmed and our ability to do mental calculations or comparisons is compromised.  This is why it is critical for anyone presenting data to consider not only the level of detail required, but also how the information should be delivered for quick and clear consumption.

    Marketing scientist Andrew Ehrenberg spent a fair amount of time on these issues and was a strong advocate of data reduction (which relates to the idea that much success in research relies on the discovery of patterns in data, and that this process is aided by its presentation in simple tables).  In fact, Ehrenberg wrote a book on the subject that is freely downloadable from the EmpGens Journal.

    Here is an example of Ehrenberg’s approach.  I’ve reproduced the tables from a four page article of his in Admap from 1992 titled ‘The Problem of Numeracy‘.  First up is a table not optimised for human consumption.  Try to pick out some noteworthy patterns.

    Now try again, using a modified presentation of the same data:

    The rounding, averages and different row ordering (population size, rather than alphabet) all make it easier to quickly understand the data.  We can now see, for instance, that most regions saw a dip in Q3, that Leeds and Edinburgh have seen strong growth in Q4, and that Leeds is consistently punching above its weight in per capita sales.  We can also easily answer comparative questions like ‘how much larger was Edinburgh than Swansea over the year‘ (about 2.5x), which were much harder to do from the first table.

    People don’t often think of treating tables like other design elements in a user interface.  Yet as the example shows, they can fairly easily be tweaked to great effect.  And, when presented clearly, a table can convey more information in a short space of time than a series of charts.

     
  • Ben 10:49 on Sunday, July 25, 2010 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: Roller Derby   

    Why don’t they have this at the Olympics? 

    And now for something completely different…  We went to the local Roller Derby last night.  Brutal Pageant were taking on reigning champions Smash Malice.  Pageant won on the night, 105 to 114 (or something like that).  There was plenty of pushing, shoving, and sin-binning.  We also saw the whip being executed more than once.  I’d be surprised if anyone on the track escaped without bruising.

    My pick for best player names:

    • Princess Slayer
    • Storm in a B Cup

    This should be an Olympic sport.

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  • Ben 19:32 on Sunday, July 11, 2010 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , Micropayments   

    Flattr: An Interesting Take on Micropayments 

    The flat-rate idea is what makes this new (in beta) micropayment service interesting – it enables people to give to content creators without having to worry about how much they are giving.

    The service needs to overcome the chicken-and-egg problem of not having the large user-base required for the service to be of most benefit.  It will also be competing with other nascent options like Facebook credits, which I imagine will soon expand beyond the confines of the Facebook platform, and Amazon’s Flexible Payments Service.

    However, if they manage to get beyond beta I’d love to see what the usage stats turn out like.

    • How many times would people give to the same content creators within a given period?
    • Would sites with high user repeat visit rates do better than those with low repeat rates but high traffic?
    • What phrases and presentations of the flattr button would generate the most gifts?

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  • Ben 16:23 on Wednesday, June 23, 2010 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: Domains   

    Tools to Feed that Domain Addiction 

    Hunting for good domains for the various website ideas that pop into my head has become a bit of a hobby.  Yes, it is sad. But it provides hours of (frustrating) entertainment and a nice sense of achievement when a pearl is finally found. If you are new to this you’ll find out a couple of things pretty quickly…

    1. Unless it is a completely new phrase/word, the domain you first think of is definitely gone, and
    2. Most of the time it is just redirecting to a domain parking page.

    You can always attempt to purchase a parked domain, but my preference is to try and find an unreserved one.  If that is the goal and if you want to find a short domain without hyphens that relates clearly to the purpose of your hypothetical site, you’ll need to get creative.  To that end, three tools I’ve come to frequently use in my hunts are:

    The thesaurus is great for coming up with alternative general phrases for the same site concept, while the top-level domain (TLD) list and crossword solver help discover possible domain hacks.  The .com has been the TLD of choice for many years because is so well known.  However, as fewer reasonable .com domains are available and more and more people are exposed to links modified by URL shorteners (e.g., bit.ly, fb.me, is.gd, goo.gl and soon t.co), it is becoming more acceptable to use uncommon TLDs in domains.  You’d be surprised at the meaningful, short domains you can come up with when you broaden your horizons beyond the .com.  I’ve managed to find a couple recently that are small enough to minimise the need for external URL shorteners.

    Of course, this is all academic if you never actually get around to building something at the domain!

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  • Ben 15:26 on Monday, June 7, 2010 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: Demographics, Purchase Behaviour   

    Demographics and Brand Decisions 

    I recently found the following interesting quote in a post titled ‘the danger of targeting a demographic‘:

    On average (across product categories), less than 2% of brand choice is explained by demographics.

    The statistic is attributed to research from Mediamark Research & Intelligence, but I’ve not been able to find the original source on their site.  Anyway, whether the number is accurate or the underlying research methodology sound is neither here nor there for the purposes of this post.  The fact is that it would be really surprising if they had found otherwise.

    It is well established that in the vast majority of markets there is very little demographic distinction between the buyers of different brands in a category.  This is despite the effort and resources dedicated by armies of marketers to ‘differentiate’ their brands and appeal to narrow audiences like ’15-35yo males’.  See 7 Brand Buying Facts (PDF) from the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute for Marketing Science in South Australia for a few more interesting facts about repeat purchase and loyalty.

    Further than that, it isn’t even logically necessary that a marketer appealing to a certain demographic segment will maximise profit.  It is quite possible that a mass-market appeal will result in greater overall sales even if it doesn’t generate as high a response as a targeted campaign would have amongst a particular segment.  See this article on the logical limitations of target marketing (PDF) for the full explanation.

    Knowing these things is useful for a couple of reasons.  First, it opens the door to considering a different focus for advertising (if the aim isn’t to appeal to segment x, then what is it?  to maintain salience amongst existing buyers? generate awareness in a new market?  support a promotional effort to induce trial?).  This shift in focus also alters downstream decisions such as media purchasing.

    Second, this knowledge helps put market research results in context.  For instance, if the bulk of a brand’s buyers are young, this is probably because most of the category buyers are young.  It doesn’t mean the brand has any more ‘mind share’ amongst that group than another brand in the category.

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  • Ben 19:43 on Saturday, May 22, 2010 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: Data Mining, , Predictive Models   

    Two More Google-Related Links 

    • Get access to Google’s predictive modelling capabilities with their Prediction API
    • And use their developer storage to hold your data (essentially an Amazon AWS competitor)
     
  • Ben 11:53 on Saturday, May 8, 2010 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , ,   

    Google’s User Interface Design and Decision Process 

    Here is a link worth keeping.  Google recently updated the look and feel of its search user interface.  This article describes the behind-the-scenes process Googlers followed to get to the end point we are all seeing today.  Unsurprisingly, they followed a thorough research process, incorporating extensive qualitative and quantitative feedback before settling on an optimal solution.

    How Google got its New Look.

     
  • Ben 10:23 on Saturday, April 24, 2010 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: ,   

    No More Shortcuts for You! 

    A quick follow-up to an earlier post on the attraction of shortcuts

    I spotted some Wellington City Council contractors erecting a solution the other day:

    I guess putting up a barrier is much cheaper than paving the goat-track!  The day after I took this there was someone churning up the ground with a rotary hoe, so it’ll be back to a grassed area in no time.

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  • Ben 11:04 on Monday, April 5, 2010 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , , Perception, Wine Glasses   

    Does that Wine Glass Really Enhance your Wine? 

    My partner loves fancy wine glasses.  Unfortunately for her we don’t have much room at home, or have people over very often, so it is hard to justify buying different sets for different wines and occasions.  Of course, this doesn’t stop either of us from gazing upon the various options in whatever home store we happen upon.

    Were we to buy some nice glasses, I suspect we’d draw upon a number of excuses to rationalise our decision, the key two being:

    1. They look and feel really nice, and
    2. Experts say the right glasses enhance the flavour of the wine.

    I have no problem at all with the first excuse.  It’s the second one that sets off my bullshit meter, because ‘experts’ are often wrong and I’ve not actually seen any evidence that the assertion is true.

    To test whether wine glasses enhance the taste of a wine, you’d have to do some blind testing.  That is, the wine tasters would have to be blind to which glass they were quaffing or sniffing from when they gave their judgements.  Pretty much all of the tests I managed to find in my trawl of the web were unblinded (see here for a recent NZHerald ‘test’), so the participants may have been influenced by the look of the glass itself rather than any true structural effects of the vessel.

    I did manage to find one reference to research using blind tests, in a section of Wine Science from 2005 by Dr Ron Jackson:

    …shape does affect the intensity of the wine’s fragrance – those possessing a wide base and narrow neck enhance the perception of the wine’s aroma.  However, the differences detected from a variation of shapes on the wide–narrow theme were marginal.  Published evidence does not support the view that particular shapes uniquely enhance the character of specific wines.
    However, the reference also states…
    That particular shapes are not uniquely suited for tasting particular wines does not mean that they do not affect perception or, indeed, aesthetic pleasure.  Science has amply confirmed that visual and psychological influences often have a greater effect on what we perceive than the more subtle sensory data provided by taste and smell.
    That’s right, the effect of the wine glass shape is very real in a sense, but that sense is pretty much all in our heads.  If you take away the visual cues of the glass from the drinker, you also take away the differences in taste experienced. Knowing this is likely to have a couple of implications:
    1. You’ll be better prepared to argue with the next wine glass snob you encounter, and
    2. Different glasses are now likely to have less of an effect on your perception of wine taste.
    I guess another implication is that the glass that most enhances the flavour of a wine will vary from person to person; the more aesthetically pleasing the glass is for you, the more it is likely to enhance your experience of the wine you are drinking.  So don’t let people tell you what glasses you should use.  Use the ones you like best.
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